The situation in Europe and worldwide is becoming increasingly dangerous. The recent military escalation involving Iran and Lebanon, as well as the continuing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the growing violence in the West Bank, underline the urgent need for diplomacy, international law, and de-escalation.

In response to these developments, the Science4Peace Forum launched an  open letter supporting Spain’s refusal to participate in the war against Iran and calling on European governments to uphold international law and work towards de-escalation.

At the next Science4Peace Seminar, held a few days after the memorial day marking the liberation from fascism and the end of World War II in Europe, we will conclude the signature campaign for the open letter and formally send it to European governments.

The world in flux. 

The impact for Europe

by

Prof T. Sauer (Antwerp University)

13 May 2026, 2 pm (CEST)

ZOOM only

Abstract:

The presentation will start  from two elements that make the European decision-makers and people afraid: the war in Ukraine and the abandonment of Europe by the US. This leads to a militarization of our European societies.Next, I will try to explain what is happening. We should go beyond the personalities of Trump and Putin. The balance of power in the world is changing. First, from bipolarity towards unipolarity after the Cold War leading to hubris in US foreign policy, more in particular decades long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and NATO expansion including Ukraine. The latter provoked Russia into war. Second, the rise of China and the relative decline of the US, which partly explains the election of Donald Trump and Trump’s unilateralist foreign policy, including the abandonment of allies like NATO. Lastly, I will come up with a proposal for Europe: further integration (including defense); strategic autonomy; the end of NATO. But at the same time not abandoning the liberal world order in the sense of keep cooperating with other regional powers (like Russia, China, maybe the US) in the form of international organizations and international treaties. Regionally, we should integrate Russia in a new security order based on collective security (eg a strengthened OSCE). Globally, we should strengthen the UN, including by reforming the UN Security Council.

Tom Sauer is Professor in International Politics at the Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium. He has published ten books and dozens of peer-reviewed journal articles, mostly on nuclear arms control, as well as more than 250 op-eds. He is on the Board of Pax Christi Flanders. He is member of the Scientific Committee of the International Institute of Peace (Vienna, Austria). Sauer has been a Research Fellow at Harvard University, at SAIS (Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC, US) and is currently Research Fellow at Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo (Japan). He also received the Rotary Alumni Global Service Award.